The most fundamental factor behind Obama’s win: “Demographic change is real,” as the report puts it. The memo estimates 3 in 10 voters will be minorities in 2016, up from 28% in 2012, a proportion that was much higher than what Romney pollsters claim they expected on Election Day.
In a section titled “What Happened?” the memo pointed to high turnout in swing states, especially among young voters, Latinos, and African Americans, as a decisive blow. In Florida, for example, it noted that “238,000 more Hispanic voters participated than in 2008 and Obama got 60% of Hispanics.”
Other stats the memo highlighted: more voters blamed Bush for the economy’s struggles than Obama by a 15-point margin and Obama was seen as strong on middle class issues. The memo also suggested Obama received a “bump” from his response to Hurricane Sandy, noting that 42% of voters in exit polls said it was an important factor in their vote.
The memo contained no policy judgments, however, avoiding explanations for the loss such asRomney’s hypothesis that “gifts” to various demographic groups helped put Obama over the top.
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