An analysis published Sunday by FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver in the New York Timesshows that polling reveals that women’s candidate preferences differ dramatically from men’s in a gap greater than nearly any time in modern history.
“If only women voted, President Obama would be on track for a landslide re-election, equaling or exceeding his margin of victory over John McCain in 2008,” Silver wrote. “If only men voted, Mr. Obama would be biding his time until a crushing defeat at the hands of Mitt Romney, who might win by a similar margin to the one Ronald Reagan realized over Jimmy Carter in 1980.”
The polling averages vary widely, Silver writes, varying from 33 points in a Zogby for theWashington Times to just 8 points in Washington Post and Pew Research polls. “On average, however, there was an 18-point gender gap, with Mr. Obama leading by an average of 9 points among women but trailing by 9 points among men,” Silver wrote.
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